Back from Hiatus

Why do the Stars insist on giving every team they play free points/make every minute of the third period a ridiculous adventure? In their last six games five have gone to extra time (four to a shootout) and even though they are 3-1-2 for 8 points in those games, they are not going to be able to catch up to the playoff race by letting pity points go to their opponents. Its time for a killer instinct lesson so third period leads don't vanish in embarrassing fashion.

Also in the game thursday against Buffalo, your sixth round shooter is Mark Parrish....Are you kidding me? Tip must have seen something amazing in practice to have Parrish go while guys like oh, Modano or Steve Ott (who already scored on a breakaway in the game), were sitting on the bench. Holy Cow is all I have to say.

Cooking up Some Analysis

I am working on some statistical analysis to see what, if any, the immediate effects are of having one Sean Avery missing from the lineup. I should have something by the end of the week. Until then are there any statistical queries that any one who has stumbled across the blog pondered and would like to have looked at? Let me know and I will use the obscene amount of spare time that I have to come up with something.

I will leave you with this though....simply amazing.

Last Avery Thing

Puck Daddy notes this from Gary Bettman's Press conference today.

Bettman's justification for the suspension's length included Avery's prior history of questionable behavior, including his previous sit-downs with Bettman and NHL suspension czar Colin Campbell; the League's desire to send a message that Avery's conduct wasn't representative of the NHL or its players; and consideration for fans in light of the vulgarity of Avery's comments.

"Particularly fans who have children, who might have to explain to them what this statement was," said Bettman.

(That last justification made me wonder what the suspension would look like if Avery had substituted "my ex's" for "sloppy seconds." Alas, the buzzer went off before it was time for the less prestigious media on the call to get their shots.)

But I want to thank Puck Daddy reader Jibblescribbits for this gem regarding that Bettman quote:

Jibblescribbits comment. Thursday Dec. 4th in the "Predictions: How long will the NHL suspend Sean Avery?" thread:
"The biggest upset in this whole debacle... no one has played the "Won't someone please think of the children" card."

Thank you Commissioner Helen Lovejoy.

Jibblescibbits, you have done your hockey community a great service.

Avery Ruling

So Avery gets 6 games, retroactive to Tuesday, meaning he can return after the December 13 game in Nashville. Was "Sloppy Seconds" and offense worth 6 games? I really don't think so, especially when Chris Pronger receives 8 for this.

Oh well. It is over as far as the NHL head office goes and now the decision lies in the hands of the Dallas Stars' owner, front office and players. Brett Hull had some comments this morning on the matter and from his tone it sounds like Sean is all but gone. Hullie also talked about fixing the person before the player, which is certainly the high road to take, but I have the feeling the Stars will wash their hands of the task of fixing Avery as a player and more importantly team mate. Maybe the Stars can bait the Rangers into a trade to bring Avery back to Broadway, but that is unlikely, especially since there is a good chance that Avery will go on waivers and thus be plucked out of re-entry for half price.

At this point though, with out a willing player-swap partner, that may be the Stars best and cheapest option as they will take a $1.24 million cap hit for the rest of this season and $2 million for the following three, versus paying out the rest of Avery's $3.5 million this year then waiting for the summer for a buy out at $8.04 million (carrying a cap hit of $1.78 million for six seasons). What that means for the guy writing the checks, pay Avery $8.04 million this summer (or $11.54 million total) or pay $7.24 million over three plus seasons to cover half his contract.

Taking this one step further, and bringing out the "Nomics" part of the blog, think of this as a net present value decision. Paying Avery in the summer in a lump sum will still cost you the $8.04 million. But, covering half of his contract for four years there is a benefit from the declining time value of money. Assuming that the risk free rate stays constant at around 3% the NPV of covering half of Avery's contract is actually $6.9 million. I guess it is a no brainer option even before looking at the NPV of the options, but hey I got spare time.

PS: All of this is contingent on the fact that there is someone out there that would extend Avery another chance. Who knows what those odds are.

Sean Avery vs. Stars Locker Room

Sean Avery's teammates are clearly not fond of him. Sean Avery's coach is not fond of him.

At this point I would have to think that there is no way that Avery can return to that locker room and have any sort of positive outcome. So, at this point, the NHLs ruling on a suspension length will really only effect Tom Hicks' wallet, as it appears Avery's days of playing hockey in Dallas are over.

This whole ordeal is becoming a ridiculous spectacle over two ill selected words, but what is shockingly hilarious is that Avery's offense is being compared to Plaxico Burress' FELONY, and in Dallas to the portfolio of work of Pacman Jones. Let's get one thing straight: Sean Avery is a stupid man, but at no point does his ultimate foot in mouth moment come close to the major legal violations of Jones or Burress. The fact that Avery is facing what some think will be a lengthy suspension is a joke and will only reflect poorly on the decision making of the NHL higher ups. My suggestion, fine him good and then let the Stars figure out the best way to void his contract, or let him spend the rest of his four year agreement in the minors or on the waiver wire.

Sean Avery Is Entertaining

Sean Avery has to have the best trash talking material in the game, demonstrated today by his jabs at Phuthbert. Enjoy.

UPDATE**

Sean Avery was just suspended by the NHL for his digs at Dion Phaneuf. Stars owner Tom Hicks says that he supports the NHL's decision and would have done the same had the NHL not stepped in.

Here are his comments. Pay special attention to his teammates reactions at the end.

I'm not sure that I agree with suspending a player over some childish off ice remarks. I think a fine would have been more in order, in terms of what should come down from the league. The team response is a whole different story. If the leaders of the team are seemingly embarrassed by a teammate, that DOES require action from the front office. Again, I'm not sure that an indefinite suspension is the answer, but certainly a fine. More on this later.

Madien Post

This is the first post for what I hope will be a successful blog, and yet another place for Dallas Stars (and all around) puck junkies to spend their time, when they should be working.

Right into it though...some shocking numbers.

Results of games after the Stars have won this season:

St. Louis - L 6-1

New Jersey - L 5-0
Washington - OTL 6-5
Chicago - L 5-2
San Jose - L 2-1
Chicago - L 6-3
San Jose - L 6-2


In games after wins the Stars are 0-6-1 and have been outscored 36-14, averaging 5.14 goals against and just 2 goals for. Marty Turco has started in all but one of those games (First Chicago game) and finished just three.

All I can say is wow. Anyone else think that tonight versus Calgary is a must win?